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The ruling is the latest twist in a dispute dating to 2012 that has involved allegations of government interference, a failed settlement, and three international arbitration awards.

Baldwin and fellow casino entrepreneur Shawn Scott arrived in Laos in 2007 with ambitious plans to build a casino business aimed partly at customers crossing the country’s borders.

The pair established Sanum Investments and partnered with Laotian conglomerate ST Group. Baldwin later testified that the investors initially committed around $7.5 million to the venture, which envisaged two casino resorts and several slot clubs.

What is American Poker 90's Casino?

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”