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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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Notably, the Spectrum report does acknowledge that Evolution did not knowingly allow games in prohibited territories, however, it has also flagged a number of compliance issues, which resulted in its games being provided in markets where online gambling is, or has been, prohibited.

Here are some of the dossier’s key findings, some of which raise questions around Evolution’s compliance operations during the period assessed.

Within the initial pages of its lengthy August 2021 report, Spectrum Gaming explains it carried out an extensive technical, operational and compliance review of Evolution’s “business practices, public record database research and an assessment of the company’s anti-money laundering compliance procedures and processes, as they related to the allegations contained in the ‘anonymous report'”.

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This could precipitate as many as 1,470 shop closures and the loss of up to 15,900 jobs, according to figures commissioned via the Betting and Gaming Council and consultancy firm EY.

David further emphasised the impact such a tax rise would have on high street workers and communities.

“They are people losing their jobs and communities losing long-established high-street businesses,” David wrote.